Projects
CRI's current research on NATO's northern and eastern flank. Each project page sets out the question, the method and the sources. The full analyses are prepared for organisations on request.
Ambiguous incidents in the Baltic Sea region
When a cable is cut or drones close an airport, how soon can an accident be told apart from an attack? The damage to Balticconnector and Estlink 2 and the drone sightings over Danish airports, reconstructed step by step and tested against competing explanations.
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses · Timeline analysis · Key Assumptions Check · Deception assessment
Russian Telegram watch
A daily read of Russian military bloggers, official channels and regional channels from Murmansk to Kaliningrad. It looks for early signs of unit movements, losses and mobilisation, and follows how Denmark and the Nordic countries are portrayed.
Indicators and warning · Source grading · Narrative analysis
Baselines at Russia's northern bases
What normal activity looks like at Baltiysk, Severomorsk and Olenya, so that a departure from normal stands out early. Includes how activity at Olenya has changed since the Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian bomber bases in June 2025.
Imagery analysis · Pattern-of-life analysis · Indicators and warning
Who runs Russia's Arctic
The people and companies behind Russia's Arctic energy, shipbuilding and defence industry, and how close they sit to Putin's inner circle. Researched in Russian from primary sources.
Network analysis · Analysis of Competing Hypotheses · Red Hat analysis
Analyses on request
The full analyses from these projects are prepared for organisations on request. Write to contact@counterriskinsights.dk with a short description of your interest, or to discuss the work in progress.