Independent analysis
Analysis of Russian military and hybrid activity in the High North, the Baltic Sea and along NATO's eastern border, built on satellite imagery, tracking data and open sources, with explicit probabilities.
An Analysis of Competing Hypotheses applied to a narrative circulating on Russian Telegram channels, testing three explanations against the available evidence.
Read the analysis →The narrative is likely coordinated rather than organic.
Commercial motives alone are highly unlikely to explain its timing.
From the Barents Sea to the Black Sea, NATO meets Russia along one continuous flank. The map follows it from north to south.
Russia's Northern Fleet and its submarine bases, facing the Barents Sea and the North Atlantic.
Kaliningrad, the SuwaĆki gap, and the cables and pipelines on the seabed.
Crimea, the Black Sea Fleet and the southern front of the war in Ukraine.
Russia's Northern Fleet on the Kola Peninsula, the GIUK gap, Greenland and Svalbard, and China's growing interest in the High North.
Kaliningrad, undersea cables and pipelines, and incidents at sea where attribution is uncertain.
NATO's land border with Russia and Belarus, the SuwaĆki gap, and what the war in Ukraine means for Nordic and Baltic defence.
Public attribution was highly unlikely to settle within the first week.
Under short warning times, misreading a probe as an attack is a realistic possibility.
A deliberate campaign is unlikely on current evidence, but three indicators would change that.
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, Key Assumptions Check and Indicators. Every analysis states which techniques were used.
Judgements use a fixed probability scale, so "likely" always means the same thing.
Monte Carlo simulation explores the range of possible outcomes rather than a single forecast.
CRI uses the probability yardstick of the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment. The gaps between ranges are deliberate and avoid false precision at the boundaries.
How compressed warning times around Kaliningrad affect the ability to tell an accident from an attack, and what that means for crisis management.
Newsletter
A fortnightly brief on security risk in the High North, the Baltic Sea and along NATO's eastern border. Key judgements, indicators to watch and one chart, in five minutes.
Counter Risk Insights is an independent analysis practice focused on security risk on NATO's northern and eastern flank. Every judgement carries an explicit probability, every analysis names its method, and every source is listed. CRI was founded by Viktor Anker Bendsen, who holds an MSc in Geopolitical Studies from Charles University in Prague.
More about CRI →