Baselines at Russia's northern bases

The question

Warning depends on knowing what normal looks like. This project builds a record of activity at three Russian bases on the flank. Baltiysk is the main base of the Baltic Fleet in Kaliningrad, Severomorsk is the headquarters of the Northern Fleet on the Kola Peninsula, and Olenya is an airbase for long-range bombers south of Murmansk. The project asks how many large vessels and aircraft are normally present at each, how that number varies, and what a meaningful departure from the pattern would look like.

Why it matters

A surge at one of these bases, or a sudden absence, can signal an exercise, a deployment or preparation for something larger. Olenya adds a specific question. Ukrainian drones struck aircraft there in June 2025, and the project follows how the bomber force has used the base since.

Approach

Each base is counted at regular intervals on optical and radar imagery from the European Copernicus programme. At ten metres per pixel, the images show large vessels and aircraft clearly but cannot identify every type, so counts are grouped by size, and each note states what the images can and cannot show. The counts form a baseline, and indicators are defined in advance for what would count as unusual.

What the full analysis will contain

• Counts of large vessels and aircraft at each base over time, with the normal range marked.
• Annotated images of typical and unusual days.
• The indicators that would mark a departure from normal, and any departures observed.