Who runs Russia's Arctic

The question

Russia’s Arctic is run by a small number of state corporations and private groups. Rosatom operates the Northern Sea Route, Novatek drives the Arctic gas projects, and a handful of shipyards build and repair the submarines and ships of the Northern Fleet. This project maps who owns and manages them, how they connect to one another, and how close each sits to Putin and his inner circle.

Why it matters

Decisions about the Arctic are taken by people, not by institutions in the abstract. Knowing who holds influence, and through which channels, helps explain how Russia will respond to sanctions, to the war’s demands on its industry and to a more contested Arctic. For companies, the same map shows where sanctions exposure and reputational risk lie in a supply chain or a partnership.

Approach

The work is done in Russian from primary sources, including Kremlin transcripts and decrees, government appointments, company reports and registers, and the Russian business press. People, companies and institutions are entered as nodes in a network, with every tie sourced and graded. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses tests rival views of how the system works, for example a single hierarchy around Putin against competing groups that he balances. Red Hat analysis looks at key decisions from the point of view of the people who take them. The project covers public figures, state bodies and companies only.

What the full analysis will contain

• A network map of the main people, companies and institutions in Russia’s Arctic industry.
• Short profiles of the most central figures and their ties to the Kremlin.
• An assessment of which model of the system best fits the evidence, and what it implies for Russian decisions in the Arctic.