Analyses
Assessments of security risk on NATO's northern and eastern flank, each with explicit probabilities, named techniques and listed sources.
Competing hypotheses on a Russian narrative aimed at Denmark
The narrative is likely coordinated rather than organic.
Reconstructing an ambiguous incident in the Baltic Sea
Public attribution was highly unlikely to settle within the first week.
Warning time and escalation risk around Kaliningrad
Under short warning times, misreading a probe as an attack is a realistic possibility.
Indicators to watch on undersea infrastructure
A deliberate campaign is unlikely on current evidence, but three indicators would change that.