Counter Risk Insights

Competing hypotheses on a Russian narrative aimed at Denmark

Mon, 05 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000

An Analysis of Competing Hypotheses applied to a narrative circulating on Russian Telegram channels, testing three explanations against the available evidence.

Deciding in minutes. Warning time and escalation risk in the Baltic Sea region

Thu, 01 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0000

How compressed warning times around Kaliningrad affect the ability to tell an accident from an attack, and what that means for crisis management.

Reconstructing an ambiguous incident in the Baltic Sea

Mon, 28 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A step-by-step reconstruction of an incident at sea, from the first report to the official assessment.

Warning time and escalation risk around Kaliningrad

Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A Monte Carlo model of how short warning times affect the risk of misreading military activity around Kaliningrad.

Indicators to watch on undersea infrastructure

Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A short brief on the signs that would show a shift from isolated incidents to a deliberate campaign against undersea infrastructure.

About

Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000

Why CRI

Much public analysis of security risk states conclusions without saying how likely they are or how they were reached. CRI is built on the opposite principle. Every judgement carries an explicit probability, every analysis names its method, and every source is listed.

What CRI covers

CRI covers three regions. The Arctic and North Atlantic, including Russia’s Northern Fleet and China’s growing interest in the High North. The Baltic Sea and its critical infrastructure. And NATO’s eastern flank, from the Baltic states to Ukraine. The common thread is Russian military and hybrid activity in situations where the facts are uncertain and time is short.

Contact

Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000

contact@counterriskinsights.dk

Counter Risk Insights is based in Denmark. Enquiries are normally answered within two working days.

Method

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Structured analytic techniques

Each analysis names the techniques it uses. The most common are these.

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). Several explanations are tested against the same evidence. The emphasis lies on evidence that contradicts a hypothesis, since evidence that fits every explanation proves little.
Key Assumptions Check. The assumptions behind a judgement are listed and tested, so that a conclusion does not rest on something taken for granted.
Indicators. Observable signs are defined in advance that would show a situation moving in one direction or another.

Explicit probability

Words such as “likely” mean different things to different readers. CRI therefore uses a fixed scale. When an analysis says an outcome is [[likely]], it means a probability of 55 to 75 per cent, and the same word always carries the same meaning.

Privacy policy

Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000

Last updated 6 October 2026.

Who is responsible

Counter Risk Insights, run by Viktor Anker Bendsen, is responsible for the personal data described here. Questions can be sent to contact@counterriskinsights.dk .

What is collected

Newsletter. Your email address and the time you gave consent.
Email enquiries. Your message and the contact details you include.
Website visits. The site is hosted by Cloudflare, which processes technical data such as IP addresses to deliver the site and protect it against attacks.

The website uses no cookies and no tracking. Fonts are served from this site, not from third parties.

Services

Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000

Risk assessments

Written assessments of a specific question, such as the risk to an installation, a supply route or an investment. Each assessment states its key judgements with explicit probabilities, the indicators to watch and the sources used.

Imagery and tracking analysis

Analysis of satellite imagery and ship and aircraft tracking data, for example to follow activity at a military site, the movements of vessels near critical infrastructure or interference with satellite navigation.

The Threshold

Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000

Each issue contains the key judgements from CRI’s latest work, a short list of indicators to watch and one chart. It takes about five minutes to read.

Issues are sent every second week. You can unsubscribe at any time with one click, and your address is never shared. The privacy policy explains how your data is handled.